Video Transcribed Below

We're gonna get right to it. This is the february 2023 sanford, north carolina real estate market update. And let me give you a teaser. I think you've got 60 days, maybe 90 days before we're back in a pretty hot market again. And so if you're a buyer looking and you're like, I've just been kind of waiting, you know, I'm waiting for prices to come down.

Look, spoiler alert, prices aren't coming down, right? Like prices came down a very little bit through the winter months like they typically do and interest rates does, but I'm gonna show you why right now. We've got 10 years, we've got a runway of 10 years with a growth in cement and in sanford, it's gonna be so tremendous that process, you're just gonna keep on going up, right. So if you're looking to get in at the bottom, right, like the bottom, right, this is about as bottomed out as it's gonna get and you need to jump in and get to buying because you're gonna be back in multiple offer situations and very competitive situations as a buyer pretty soon.

So, um, first things first, let me go over, you know, the months of supply in sanford right now, as you can see pre pandemic, we're up at like 567 months of supply. And then in jan, in january of 2020 we started to start to see a decline in the supply because people weren't selling their houses as much.

We stayed here at the bottom. We trended up a little bit over the course of the second half of last year because interest rates doubled. And right now we are 1. 8 months of inventory, a balanced market. Six months. It's still very much a seller's market right now.

And this is during a time when interest rates literally doubled, right, interest rates literally doubled. People put the brakes on in terms of selling their houses in terms of buying homes and we're still at only 1. 8 months of inventory in sanford. Basic laws of supply and demand are going to be the theme of this market update and I'm gonna show you why that means prices are just going up from here.

So the number of new listings in sanford has remained relatively constant, which is not a lot right. Since 2021, 2023, we just don't have a lot of new listings hitting the market. We especially don't have a lot of resales hitting the market that the increase in these can mostly be attributed to the amount of new construction hitting the market.

But a lot of the builders put this new guy. Construction listings up before the house is built and you can't move into footers and framing, right? So, um some of this is a little inflated and there just isn't a lot to choose from on the market as a buyer right now, right? So if you're looking and you know what I'm talking about, you're just like, I just can't find what I'm looking for because there's not a lot of houses on the market at any given time.

Only 45 new listing hit the market in sanford last month, right? That's not a lot. Um and what's keeping a lot of houses from hitting the market right now, there's two dynamics, right? We have uh rate locked sellers, right? And what I mean by that is sellers that bought a house when the interest rates were 2. 8% or 3. 8% or even 4%.

They're like, why in the world would I sell when I have to get a house at 6% interest they're locked in right now. They got, you know, um this, we call this rate lock syndrome right where they're just locked into their current home because they don't want to have a jump in interest and ultimately a jump in their mortgage payment.

And also because of low inventory, the fear of not being able to find something to buy, they have a lot of equity. Right. If they bought a house in 2019 2020 2021 they have a tremendous amount of equity. They sold, they could cash in on a ton of that. Um, but they're like, well, what would I buy?

There's nothing out there for me right now, I'm gonna pay more money for the same amount of house or less house and I can't find it. Right. So that dynamic is keeping inventory low, right? And it's gonna keep inventory low because although interest rates coming down, right. And here's your mortgage interest rate update today.

As of today, I saw that interest rates on conventional loans dip below 6% average interest rate on v a loan like 5. 3%. Right. The first time it's been under 6% unconventional in a long time. Um so even as interest rates come down, a lot of sellers are gonna be hesitant to sell because they still have a lower interest rate than that.

And there's not enough inventory on the market to entice them to want to buy something. Right. So where does that take us? Right. Let me tell you a little bit about the macroeconomics. Right. On a national scale, right? We have every decade since the 50s, over 20 million homes built in our country.

Why? Because our population grows every year. We have a lot of babies, we have a lot of immigrants. Our population grows every single year. Right. And so we need a lot of houses built just to keep up with that. Um and what happened in 2008 when the housing market-induced economy crash happened is that a lot of builders throughout the white flags and retreated, they stopped building houses, right? Because of the market crash.

Right? And a lot of them closed up shop and shut down the building companies altogether. And so from 2010 to 2019, very little new construction happened, right. 5. 8 million homes built in that decade, population didn't stop growing. We didn't stop having babies, we didn't stop having immigrants, but we stopped building houses.

And so that has caused a supply issue that's gonna take the better part of two decades to get out of it. Right. The largest homebuilder in america builds only 10,000 houses a year. We're not gonna make up a 20 million home deficit in a year or two years or five years. It's gonna take a decade or two to dig out of this whole.

Um and so here's a couple of different industry experts and how much inventory they think we're short just this year were, you know, realtor. Com, five million all the way down to 1. 6 million. But they forecast that for the amount of people that want to buy houses and need to buy houses were about this short in terms of inventory.

Um why, why like you know, not only does our population grow but one of our largest demographics, the millennials are between the ages of 21 to 41 right now. That also coincides as you see with pink homebuyer demand. First time homebuyers peak at age 31 they start at about age 21 start to climb and they peak at 31.

This is also the time typically somewhere in here where a lot of people by their second home. So one of the largest population demographics you can see here that, you know, every year, the amount of millennials, the market share of the homes sold in the united states in 2021 was 52%.

It's climbed every year because this big demographic segment in our population is entering prime home buying years. And so not only is the population growing, but the age of the population is coinciding with the time when in which they buy the most homes. Couple that with the fact that we didn't build enough homes, we have a shortage of homes and we have a basic supply and demand issue where we're gonna have increasing demand on the national scale.

We don't have enough supply. We can't build the homes fast enough and it's gonna cause prices to go up and up and up and up. And not only that, but you know, here's the data behind it every year, right? 2017-22 three, the median listing price in our country has gone up.

Right. It has been on a increase ever since 2017 and even before that, right. And it's gonna continue to go up year over year from here on out because of that basic supply and demand issue, right? And then on a micro scale here in sanford, let me just show you some of the headlines that I found just out of the last two weeks in terms of the tremendous growth coming to our area, right, sanford growing.

While others decline, right, over half of the counties in north carolina are experiencing, experiencing a decline in population but not in central carolina, not along the carolina core, you know, the triangle area, sanford. Um you know, in the in the area along I'll show you the carolina core here in just a second.

Here you go. Um but not in this area, right? So projections made by the state demographers, demographers office show lee county's population will grow from 63,020 22 to 90,020 50. An increase of 27,000 people in just 28 years. We can't build homes fast enough to keep up with that, right? Like we just can't.

And why is that here fizer inks a deal to snatch at xena's new north carolina manufacturing site. Fighter keeps invest in sanford, they're going to increase their employees there by 225 people over the next two years. Developer behind big triangle job announcement buys 200 acres in sanford. These are just in the last two weeks.

Sanford targeted for new 600 acre industrial park, right? 600 acre industrial park, warehouses being built, job creation happening, right? Um entity linked to raleigh investment firm grabs 115 acres near c s x site huge development plan in chatham after 500 acres of premier land sold and that's not even the biggest one right then fast if you don't know about this, right. Read this right here, right. This right here says that the company's first production facility outside of vietnam represents a $6. 5 billion dollar investment in the region and is the largest economic development project in north carolina history.

This is the largest economic development project in north carolina history. They are building a facility to bring cars off the lot or off their manufacturing lines in 2020 for 7500 jobs. Not only that, the industrial park that we talked about right here, 600 acre industrial park is uh you know, is a result of this because there has to be suppliers that relocate here to help fuel all the parts that are needed to build cars.

This is a huge project happening in mon cure and where are those people gonna live? Right. They can live in mon cure. There's not enough houses in mon cure, they can live in apex and in the triangle and some of them will. But what's gonna keep sanford relevant is our average sales price, although it's gone up every year.

Right. We're up to 333,000 and for a lot of sanford residents, it feels like affordability is going down. When we compare that to the triangle. The rest of the triangle mls, the average sales price in sanford here, um, $165 a square foot and then the entire mls higher in raleigh, it's $202 a square foot.

So, although prices are going up everywhere, it's still going to be more affordable to live in an area like sanford and all of these jobs are coming right along with the macro scale of the fact that they're millennials are buying so many houses. We don't have enough, all these jobs coming to central north carolina, where are they going to live?

And if we back up, as you'll see here, the workers for vin fast are going to be trained at the san the campus of central carolina community college. So they're gonna already be exposed to sanford. They're gonna be used to going here and going to school and being trained and eating here and doing their life here.

They're gonna buy houses here, right. Like it's going to happen, they're gonna buy houses here and we don't have enough inventory as it is. So inventory is just gonna keep going down all these jobs coming demand is gonna keep going up, supply and demand is gonna take over and houses, house prices are just gonna increase rapidly over the next decade or two.

So what does that mean? Right. Like if you are somebody who's looking to buy right now or looking to build right now, we need to talk, we need to get a game plan together and find you what you need so that you can buy right now and you can reap the huge benefits of all the growth that's gonna come here.

You can build a tremendous amount of wealth through one home or multiple homes. We can teach you how to build wealth through real estate, whether you're buying just one house or you want to buy multiple and you can capitalize on all this tremendous growth coming to our air. So that's the sanford north carolina housing market update.

If you have any questions at all, here's my cell phone number. I'm gonna put a link down below where you can schedule a one on one call with me. You can check us out on youtube and instagram and facebook and you know, our website and all of those links are gonna be below. So if you need anything at all, we'd absolutely love the opportunity to earn your business.

I am walter sarcevic sanford surrounded, who helps you with your home matters.